Joe Namath Rehab Center 2013 Playoffs: Finals

Joe Namath Rehab Center 2013 Playoffs: Finals

#2 FastFurious&Fried (10-4) – Dan Lauth

@ #1 Boley’s Day Care  (12-2) – Dennis Egan

PROBABLE STARTERS

Pos.	Lauth	Egan	Advantage
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick (@Jax)	Drew Brees (@Car)	Egan
WR1	Eric Decker (@Hou)	Pierre Garcon (Dal)	Egan
WR2	Josh Gordon (@NYJ)	Jordy Nelson (Pitt)	Lauth
RB1	Eddy Lacy (Pitt)	Matt Forte (@Phi)	Egan
RB2	Frank Gore (Atl)	DeMarco Murray (@Wash)	Egan
TE	Jason Witten (@Wash)	Coby Fleener (@KC)	Lauth
K	Phil Dawson (Atl)	Blair Walsh (@Cin)	PUSH
D	Cleveland (@NYJ)	Tennessee (@Jax)	PUSH

HOW THEY GOT HERE:

            Lauth topped Tannenbaum by over 22 points (75.74-53.34) en route to the finals.  He received at least ten points from five different guys, including a team-high 17 from Dawson.  Conversely, Tannenbaum got ten points from just two guys and once again had his defense produce negative points.

            Egan survived his match-up with Williams, winning 77.22-69.54.  Brees, Garcon and Carolina’s D each scored 14 points or more for Egan.  Both had busts in their lineups.  Fleener failed to score for Egan, while Alfred Morris got Williams a grand total of 0.74 points.      

WHY LAUTH COULD WIN:

            Lauth has some explosive receivers and they could be in for huge days considering their competition.  Denver against Houston’s defense is a superb match-up, while Cleveland should find it hard to run on the Jets and should be forced to air it out.  Gordon is arguably as good as it gets right now and has shown the ability to go for 30-40 points.

            Some may think that Lacy’s value would be diminished should Rodgers return, however I think it would help him.  The Steelers would not be able to bring as many defenders into the box and the running lanes would be open.  Gore, while he has somewhat disappeared over the last few weeks and has just one touchdown in his last six games, has a good match-up at home.  A ton of yards won’t be needed if he can pick up two one-yard TD runs.

            At first Lauth had Jason Campbell at quarterback.  Fortunately for him he has awakened from that coma and has switched to Fitzpatrick.  The match-up is good I guess, but I would be far pressed to bet an $800 payday on him.  Regardless, it is obvious that Lauth is against rolling with Luck at KC.  I can see his thought process and would be pulling my hair out all week trying to decide who to go with.

WHY EGAN COULD WIN:

            Egan has been banging his head against a wall as well with his quarterback decision.  I received a text a few days ago with pleads to help talk him off the ledge.

Egan’s conundrum is Brees at Carolina, Cutler at Philly or Foles versus Chicago.  The first person I would rule out is Cutler.  Sure he can throw for a few TDs, but he can also turn the ball over at a pretty good clip.  Plus, with having Forte as well, I feel as if Egan would be putting a lot of stock in the Bears’ offense on the road.

A lot of fantasy ‘experts’ have Foles ranked higher than Brees this week based primarily on the match-ups, but I couldn’t for the life of me bring myself to bench Brees in any scenario.  My dad and I have owned Brees and Rodgers in another league over the past three years and never benched them for any match-up.  However, we also never had a backup QB as hot and with as good of a match-up as Egan has in Foles right now.  I could see going with Foles, but I would not be able to live with myself if I were to lose and Brees had a big day on my bench.

Garcon, Forte and Murray should all produce good days for Egan.  The difference-makers will be Nelson and Fleener (or Eifert).  If Rodgers plays then Nelson immediately becomes a WR1.  What Fleener or Eifert will do is anyone’s guess.

A lot will ride on the kickers and defenses as well.  A ten-point difference in kicker or defensive scoring helps a boat load.  That difference quickly negates three touchdowns from the other team’s skill players.  While I called both a push, I mainly did so with the admission that predicting either’s stats would be impossible.  Still, they could go a long way in deciding the championship.

WHO WINS:

            At this point, with it being a one-week scenario, anything can happen.  I can pick one guy for whatever reason and the other could easily win for the same exact reason.  Because of that, I am not going to make a pick this week.

I like Egan and Lauth both as friends and people, but also hate them for fantasy reasons at the same time (Egan defeated me in both baseball leagues this past fall, while Lauth has seemed to have my number since joining a bunch of our leagues).

Joe Namath Rehab Center 2013 Playoffs: Semi-Finals

Joe Namath Rehab Center 2013 Playoffs: Semi-Finals

#3 Mayweather/Peterson 2 (10-4) – Josh Tannenbaum

@ #2 FastFurious&Fried (9-4) – Dan Lauth

PROBABLE STARTERS

Pos.	Tannenbaum	Lauth	Advantage
QB	Cam Newton (NYJ)	Andrew Luck (Hou)	Lauth
WR1	Larry Fitzgerald (@Tenn)	Eric Decker (SD)	PUSH
WR2	Danny Amendola (@Mia)	Josh Gordon (Chi)	Lauth
RB1	LeSean McCoy (@Minn)	Eddie Lacy (@Dal)	Tannenbaum
RB2	Shane Vareen (@Mia)	CJ Spiller (@Jax)	Tannenbaum
TE	Delanie Walker (Ari)	Jason Witten (GB)	Lauth
K	Matt Prater (SD)	Ryan Succop (@Oak)	Tannenbaum
D	Cincinnati (@Pitt)	New England (@Mia)	PUSH

HOW TANNENBAUM GOT HERE:

            Josh knocked off yours truly, 101.56-83.80.  Nothing like scoring the second-most points in the league and still losing.

            Tannenbaum received 24 and 21 points from his running backs, and got at least nine points from every single position player.  Even his last-second pickup, TE Mychal Rivera, scored a touchdown.

WHY TANNENBAUM COULD WIN:

            McCoy and Vareen could severely outscore Lauth’s running backs and create a difference Lauth won’t be able to make up.  Newton will produce enough especially at home negate most of a great day from Luck.  It will come down to whether Fitz and Amendola can stay close enough with Decker and Gordon.  If they can, and they allow Tannenbaum to keep his RB advantage, then he could come away with the win.

            Walker and Cinci’s D are wild cards.  Tannenbaum is probably hoping for a 4-50 line from Walker, and more than the negative-five points the Bengals got him last week.

WHY LAUTH COULD WIN:

            Lauth’s big advantages lie in his receivers and tight end.  Gordon has been an absolute monster as of late and, as crazy as it sounds, should be counted on for no less than six catches, 100 yards and a score.

            Decker has shown that he can go for two catches or four touchdowns.  Welker being out will only help his chances of hitting paydirt once again.  If these two blow up, and Tannenbaum doesn’t receive a matching day from his backs, Lauth could win easily.

            Witten has been up-and-down all year.  He recently hauled in two scores, but has been known to go a few games without finding the endzone.

            Lauth’s season will ride on his backs.  How he can still trust Spiller in a semi-final playoff game is beyond me, but more power to him.  Lacy should have a decent day against Dallas’ horrific and shameful defense.

WHO WINS:

            I like Tannenbaum’s team as a whole better than Lauth’s.  Lauth may have some better matchups and a few more guys capable of blowing up, but I feel as if Tannenbaum is better top to bottom.

            That being said, I am going to go with Lauth since I was 0-2 last week and would like to see Tannenbaum win.

#5 DalesBasementVacancy (8-6) – Ross Williams

@ #1 Boley’s Day Care (11-2) – Dennis Egan

PROBABLE STARTERS

Pos.	Williams	Egan	Advantage
QB	Philip Rivers (@Den)	Drew Brees (@StL)	Egan
WR1	Antonio Brown (Cin)	Pierre Garcon (@Atl)	Williams
WR2	Alshon Jeffery (@Cle)	Jordy Nelson (@Dal)	Williams
RB1	Alfred Morris (@Atl)	Matt Forte (@Cle)	Egan
RB2	Giovani Bernard (@Pitt)	Knowshon Moreno (SD)	Egan
TE	Martellus Bennett (@Cle)	Jordan Reed (@Atl)	Williams
K	Stephen Gostkowski (@Mia)	Blair Walsh (Phi)	Egan
D	San Francisco (@TB)	Carolina (NYJ)	PUSH

HOW WILLIAMS GOT HERE:

            As if McFarland didn’t have a tough loss, Peon may have had it worse.  Williams got just enough points from Jeffery and Bennett on Monday Night to top Peon, 68.96-68.76.

            To put it in perspective, that is a difference of five rushing yards or ten passing yards.  One more catch for Peon, or a sack, would have netted him the win.

            A lot of kittens were murdered on the night of Dec. 9.

WHY WILLIAMS COULD WIN:

            Like Lauth in the other game, Williams has a serious receiver advantage.  The argument could be made that Brown and Jeffery are both WR1s, while Bennett is a capable TE1.  McCown has shown that he will throw to anyone.  Meanwhile, Egan has good receivers with no one to throw to them.  I learned first-hand in another league what happens to a guy like Nelson once Rodgers goes down.

            Morris and Bernard don’t have the best match-ups, however the Skins may rely more heavily on the run since they are starting Cousins.  Anything more than five points from either RB should be considered a win for Williams.

WHY EGAN COULD WIN:

            Two words.  Drew.  Brees.  If you can’t have Peyton Manning, the next best thing is Brees.  He may not be at home this week, but he is still in a dome going against a team that is hard to run on.  I would say 350 yards and three scores is a LOCK for Brees.

            Egan also holds a leg up in running backs.  Forte and Moreno are top of the line at this point.  Egan also has DeMarco Murray on the bench.  However, unless he changes his mind in the next few hours, he will be forced to roll with those two as I doubt he would bench Forte for Murray.

            The Chicago game will be interesting.  Williams owns two Bears receivers, while Egan has their workhorse back.  A lot of points will be made up or gained in that one.

            Walsh in a dome is as good as it gets right now.  And the defenses both have good matchups.  If I had to choose though, I would probably take the Panthers at home.

WHO WINS:

            While I feel as if this game could go either way, I am going to go with Egan by the slimmest of margins.  Although Egan’s receivers aren’t very reliable right now, and mega points can be had by receivers, Brees, Forte, Moreno, Walsh and Carloina’s D put him over the top for me.

Joe Namath Rehab Center 2013 Playoffs: First Round

Joe Namath Rehab Center 2013 Playoffs: First Round

#6 Catchin bids not tds (7-6) – Shawn McFarland

@ #3 Mayweather/Peterson 2 (9-4) – Josh Tannenbaum

PROBABLE STARTERS

Pos.	McFarland	Tannenbaum	Advantage
QB	Matt Stafford (@Phi)	Cam Newton (@NO)	McFarland
WR1	Andre Johnson (@Jax)	Larry Fitzgerald (StL)	McFarland
WR2	Roddy White (@GB)	TY Hilton (@Cin)	PUSH
RB1	Jamaal Charles (@Wash)	LeSean McCoy (Det)	PUSH
RB2	Reggie Bush (@Phi)	Shane Vareen (Cle)	McFarland
TE	Julius Thomas (Tenn)	Delanie Walker (@Den)	McFarland
K	Nick Novak (NYG)	Matt Prater (Tenn)	Tannenbaum
D	Houston (@Jax)	Cincinnati (Ind)	Tannenbaum

WHY MCFARLAND COULD WIN:

            Touchdowns are key in the Joe Namath Rehab Center and every single player in McFarland’s starting lineup could score two touchdowns in any given game.  Obviously Roddy White stands out as the exception to that, but he is looking much more promising after his ten-catch performance last week.

            All six of McFarland’s skill players have plus match-ups.  Stafford is a top-three QB play this week, while Johnson, Charles, Bush and Thomas are all arguably top-five at their respective positions as well.  The Rehab Center rewards .5 points-per-reception, potentially making all four of those guys very deadly.  On top of that, all are top target/touch monsters in the red zone.  However, if Thomas is inactive once again, McFarland’s advantage at tight end will quickly be erased.  Jacob Tamme played well two weeks ago, but caught just one ball last week.

            Novak and Houston’s defense have good match-ups as well.  San Diego should move the ball at will on the Giants at home.  Fortunately for McFarland, unlike the case with Matt Prater last week, the Charges aren’t good enough to score a touchdown every trip down the field.  McFarland has no other Chargers on his team and would like to see San Diego with 15 points rather than 14 or 21.

            Houston has the potential to do well, but can’t really be trusted after some of its recent performances.  Still, the Texans held the Jags to just 13 points two weeks ago.  The fact that the game is being played on a Thursday should help as well.

WHY TANNENBAUM COULD WIN:

            If Newton were to have a big day in New Orleans and run for two touchdowns that would quickly offset a great day by Stafford.  Newton certainly has been running less this year as compared to his last two, but you never know against a defense who likes to blitz and play man coverage across the board.

            Fitzgerald and McCoy must have good days as well.  Like a few of McFarland’s starters, Tannenbaum has two two-TD guys in Fitz and Shady.  McCoy will likely see a bunch of targets and could very easily negate any decent day from Charles or Bush.  The Lions have been hard to run against though, which may mean that McCoy will see a lot of balls out of the backfield.  Vareen had a good day last week too, but counting on him for a touchdown may be a stretch.  Still, Vareen has hauled in 7, 8, 8 and 5 catches in his four games so he should provide a couple of points on receptions alone.

            Hilton was a push with White because they are both so inconsistent.  Hilton hasn’t scored a touchdown since his three-TD game a month ago.  Walker, who has replaced Jermichael Finley for Tannenbaum, is a stretch as well.  Walker does have five touchdowns on the year, but was concussed last week and his availability is up in the air.

            Prater is arguably the best kicker in fantasy due to his offense’s ability to get in field goal range literally every time they have the ball.  However, as mentioned before, they also have the ability to score multiple touchdowns and leave him with measly extra points (five points last week.)

            Cinci’s defense should be a good play at home against a struggling Colts team.  They are currently calling for freezing rain in Cinci on Sunday.  Unfortunately for Tannenbaum, something will have to give as he has Hilton going against his defense.  The points will offset if Hilton scores, otherwise Tannenbaum won’t be able to get max points from both positions.

WHO WINS:

            I can’t help but feel as if I am going to jinx myself hardcore, but based on the match-ups I have to pick Catchin bids not tds to win.  I feel as if my lineup is capable of producing as well as any left in our playoffs and, coupled with the plus match-ups across the board, expect my team to advance to the semi-finals to face Mr. Egan.

#5 DalesBasementVacancy (7-6) – Ross Williams

@ #4 Hangin wit Mr Cooper (8-5) – Louis Peon

PROBABLE STARTERS

Pos.	Williams	Peon	Advantage
QB	Philip Rivers (NYG)	Russell Wilson (@SF)	Williams
WR1	Antonio Brown (Mia)	Demaryius Thomas (Ten)	Peon
WR2	Alshon Jeffery (Dal)	Harry Douglas (@GB)	Williams
RB1	Alfred Morris (KC)	Adrian Peterson (@Balt)	Peon
RB2	Giovani Bernard (Ind)	Bobby Rainey (Buf)	PUSH
TE	Martellus Bennett (Dal)	Rob Gronkowski (Cle)	Peon
K	Stephen Gostkowski (Cle)	Steve Hauschka (@SF)	PUSH
D	San Francisco (Sea)	Kansas City (@Wash)	Peon

WHY WILLIAMS COULD WIN:

            Fantasy football has become a quarterback-driven game and Williams’ signal caller has a much better match-up than Peon’s.  Rivers could throw for 300-plus yards and a couple of scores and help out a ton.  At the same time he could throw one touchdown with two or three picks.  Rivers’ performance will go a long way in determining whether Williams wins or not.

            His receivers have been reception-monsters as of late.  Brown is practically a lock for six catches, while Jeffery has shown what he is capable of the last two weeks.  Jeffery gets another favorable match-up this week against Dallas.  The weather may play a factor, but could Jeffery go for 200 yards three wins in a row?  If he does, and posts a 30-point line like last week, he could cancel out Thomas and Peterson alone.

            Morris and Bernard aren’t the best running backs to have come playoff time.  The Redskins’ offense is dreadful and the match-up is not very good.  At first glace one might think Bernard has the advantage over Rainey.  However, Bernard hasn’t offered much the weeks he hasn’t scored.  Bad weeks from these two could doom Williams.

            Bennett could catch a touchdown, or he could catch two balls for 14 yards like last week.  Which will it be?  Oh, the luck of fantasy.

            Gostkowski is as good as they come, but do you ever really know what to expect from a kicker?  San Fran’s D is always tough.  They are at home, but Williams can’t be too thrilled after watching the Seahawks dismantle the Saints last week.

WHY PEON COULD WIN:

            Peon has three guys, Thomas, Peterson and Gronkowski, who probably have at least a 70 percent chance of scoring a touchdown.  Those are very, very good odds.  Williams’ best would be Brown or Jeffery, and I would put their chances around 50-50.

            If those three guys get in the end zone, and Jeffery doesn’t go wild for Williams, I think Peon will be looking good.  Douglas and Rainer are wild cards and anything more than six points should be viewed as gravy.  The Falcons should be throwing a ton at Green Bay, while Buffalo is allowing over a hundred yards on the ground.

            Where the game will be won or lost will be in the quarterback vs. defense match-up.  If Wilson does well and limits his turnovers, that means Williams didn’t get a game-changing performance out of his defense.  If Wilson throws a few picks and only musters 14-21 points, maybe he throws a touchdown (or a pick-six), then Williams’ defense will probably have outscored Wilson.  That alone could offset a lot of points.

            Peon will like his defensive match-up, however the Chiefs have given up a ton of points as of late.  Plus they will be on the road.  RGIII is turnover prone, but scoring 14 points to negate any scoring other than sacks and turnovers is definitely do-able.

WHO WINS:

            I am going to go with Peon.  Williams has a few guys that can go off in Rivers and Jeffery, but Peon has more in Thomas, AP and Gronk.  Wilson at San Fran might have been scary a few weeks ago, but not now.  He seems to have the game completely under control.  I think Peon winning the QB vs. D match-up, along with getting at least two touchdowns from his big three, will lead him to victory.