There are a few major sports
records that most people would classify as “unbreakable.”
A couple
that come to mind include Cal Ripken Jr.’s consecutive games-played streak
(2,632), Wayne Gretzky’s 215 points in a season, Pete Rose’s 4,256 all-time
hits, Pistol Pete’s average of 44.2 points-per-game in a college career, Brett
Favre’s consecutive games-played streak (297), and Cy Young’s 511 career wins.
All six of
those records seem pretty ridiculous when you sit down and put them into
perspective. In Ripken and Favre’s case, those streaks are quite
staggering when one considers that in this day and age it is common for
baseball players to get a day of rest at least once every two weeks. And
for a quarterback to go 18-and-a-half seasons without missing a game – when
about five guys are trying to take his head off on every play – is rather
unfathomable.
As for the
performance-based records, I’d bet Cy Young’s is the most untouchable. I
think it is pretty safe to say that no pitcher today will average more than 20
wins for 25 consecutive seasons. Rose’s would probably be second
considering he and Ty Cobb are the only two players in history with more than
3,800 hits.
Gretzky’s
215-point season in 1985-86 means he averaged over 2.5 points-per-game for the
entire year. Unfortunately, he takes some of the luster off of his own
record due to the simple fact that he was just so damn good. He is the
only player to tally more than 200 points in a season (but did it four times)
and has ten of the top-11 scoring seasons in NHL history. Anything he can
do, you can’t do better.
My
affinity for Pistol Pete goes without saying if you read my previous piece on
him. If you haven’t,
here you go.
I guess averaging 44.2 points-per-game could be possible today, but only
if the player is a one-and-done guy and 'technically' averages it for his
one-year career. However, Maravich averaged 44.2 points for
four years
and did so
without the three-point line. Had the line existed it is estimated that he would have scored about
57-points-per-game. Jesus Shuttlesworth couldn't even do that.
But enough
about those records and how mind-boggling they are. I feel as if another
performance-based record has joined the ranks as one of the “unbreakables.”
Due to a number of factors that I will detail, I believe
that
Emmitt Smith’s career rushing mark of 18,355
yards will stand the test of time and last long after I am gone. That, or
until football turns into
Sarcastaball.
First of
all, I’m not too naïve to realize that Barry Sanders would have probably held
this record had he not abruptly retired after ten seasons and 15,269 yards.
He later admitted that the record wasn't that important to him and the
multiple losing seasons had taken their toll on his psyche. Kind of makes
you respect the guy a little bit more, huh? I don't know how many athletes
today would cut short their own shot at immortality.
The number
one aspect of the NFL that makes me believe that Smith’s record will last quite
a while is that the league has become a ‘passing league.’ Whether it is
due to the recent rule changes that took away hand-checking from defensive
backs, or just the new offensive spread-it-out schemes that have become so
prevalent, the NFL is pass-happy.
Before
2008, only one quarterback (Dan Marino in 1984) had ever passed for more than
5,000 yards in a season. Since then it has been done five times (three
times by Drew Brees). In that same five-year window, quarterbacks have
surpassed 4,500 yards 15 times.
Furthermore,
12 of the top-20 pass-attempt seasons have taken place in the last five years.
Fifteen of the top-20 passes-completed seasons too.
Now look
at what that has done to the rushing totals. Since 2008, only three times
has a running back topped 1,700 yards. Adrian Peterson did it twice while
Chris Johnson did so once. Both went over 2,000 yards, but each of those
seasons seem to be the outliers of the past half-decade.
Perhaps
even more startling are the rushing attempt numbers. The most attempts
any back has gotten in the last five years was Michael Turner. His 376
carries in 2008 rank 20th all-time. One would have to look all the way
down to 55th to find someone who has had the most carries since 2010.
Arian Foster ran the ball 351 times that season.
The 19
guys ahead of Turner set their marks between 1981 and 2006, with only six of
those totals taking place in the 2000s. Oddly enough Smith’s highest
total was 377 attempts - one more than Turner's high. Still, as one can
easily see, running backs aren’t getting the carries that they used to.
So how can they get the yards when they don't get the touches?
Coupled
with all the passing, most teams have started using two running backs in the
hopes of lessening the wear-and-tear on one guy. How many teams legitimately
use one back now-a-days? Houston (Foster), Jacksonville
(Maurice Jones-Drew), Minnesota (Peterson), Tennessee (Johnson) and San Francisco (Frank Gore) are the only ones
that come to mind. Everyone else either splits or runs on a 75-25 count.
That ratio may not seem like a lot, but that's 15 carries instead of 20. The league average is around 3.5
yards-per-carry, so that's a potential loss of 18 yards a game and 280 yards a
season.
There is
something else that has become a big problem in the NFL and may indirectly lead
to less rushing attempts and yards. That would be concussions and the new
protocols to deal with them.
It has
become widely evident – whether through player admissions, research, or the
NFL’s own acknowledgment – that concussions weren’t closely watched as recent
as five years ago. It wasn’t until ex-players either started losing their
memories or killing themselves that someone finally decided to take a look at
what was going on. Now, with all the lawsuits being brought against it,
the NFL is taking concussions and their treatments very seriously.
I don’t
know how many concussions Smith had in his career. Smith only missed
seven games in his 13 years with Dallas.
Two of them were because he was holding out in ’93 and another was
because the Cowboys’ playoff spot was already locked in. He went on to
miss seven games with Arizona,
but I can’t recall any of them being strictly because of a concussion.
Smith did say last year that he would lie about head injuries to stay in
games. How many times is anyone’s guess, but players surely won't be
getting away with that anymore.
Today, if
a player is suspected of having any type of head injury, they are immediately
pulled from the game and given a series of tests. If the trainers think
there is even the slightest chance that the player has sustained some sort of
injury then they are done for the day. No more questions asked. The
player must then pass mental and physical tests throughout the upcoming week(s)
in order to be allowed to play. It could take one week. It could
take five.
I
understand the NFL has had to alter its concussion protocols with all of the
added attention. The players have to be protected from themselves in a
sense. They have shown in the past that they won't take themselves out of
harms way. Add in that fact that a running back gets hit practically
every time they touch the ball and their chances for injuries increase
dramatically. Missed games means no yards, and the players don’t get that
time back. As Charles Barkley likes to
say, “Father Time is undefeated.”
Now for the
numbers. I feel as if what I am about to explain will put my argument
over the top.
The Rams’
Steven Jackson has the most yards of any active player with 10,135 yards (27th
all-time). That puts him 8,220 yards behind Smith. To put that in
perspective, only 38 backs in 93 years have rushed for that many yards.
So to say Jackson
can’t even see Smith with a telescope would be an understatement.
Peterson
is second amongst active backs with 8,849 yards. Gore is third at
8,839. No other active back save Willis
McGahee (8,097) has more than 7,400 yards. Quick math tells you that each
of these guys would have to more than double their current career outputs in
order to reach Smith. Sounds like a long shot, eh? Well, there is
more.
Gore turns
30 in May and has rushed for more than 1,214 yards just once in his career.
Combine that with the 49ers' new system with Colin Kaepernick and I think
it is safe to say Gore is out of the picture.
Peterson
will turn 28 in March. Now before I get into Peterson’s dilemma, I’d like
to bring up LaDainian Tomlinson. At age 28, LT had 10,650 yards heading
into 2008 and looked as if he had a realistic shot at topping Smith. Four
years later, after two seasons with San
Diego and two with the New York Jets, he retired with
13,684 yards – roughly 5,000 yards shy of the record. Talk about an
abrupt decline in production. That will make guys like
Shaun Alexander,
Edgerrin James and
Fred Taylor feel better about themselves.
Peterson,
probably the most physically-suited back to break the record today, averages
about 1,475 yards-per-season. For arguments sake, let’s say he runs like
that for the next two years and gets to 11,799 yards by the time he turns 30.
The number
“30” is thought to be the death sentence for running backs. Most experts
say a back’s skills greatly diminish after they hit the big 3-0. Whether that's the case or not, let’s look at
those numbers.
The NFL
record for most rushing yards after turning 30: Emmitt Smith with 5,789.
John Riggins is second with 5,683 while Walter Payton is third at 5,101.
With that in mind, one sees that Peterson would have to break the post-30
record by 767 yards in order to get to Smith. He would have to rush for
6,556 yards after turning 30 on top of gaining nearly 3,000 yards over the next
two seasons. If I were a betting man, which I am, I would not take those
odds. And I’m not.
It seems as if running backs have
everything going against them in today’s NFL.
They aren't just fighting the hands of time anymore. They have to
deal with pass-first offenses, stricter injury protocols and splitting carries
with teammates. Because of all of those things, I expect future running
backs to be trying to '
Catch 22' for a long time to come.
